Harris Vs Trump 2024 Who Is Winning. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. Based on all of our model’s scenarios, we give ms harris a 56% chance of winning the election and mr trump 43%, making it virtually a coin toss.
Silver released his final forecast after running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling data and found that harris with a 50.015% chance of winning compared. Harris is well ahead among likely voters younger than 30 (55% support her to 38% who favor trump), and among black (79% harris to 16% trump) and latino (59% harris to.
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